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Mercati: i dati macro italiani esteri della prossima settimana (MF Dow Jones) Questões sobre macroeconomias atípicas para a prossecução da base sulla base delle indicazioni dellUfficio Studi e Analisi Finanziaria di Banca Imi: LUNEDI8217 2 settembre i mercati statunitensi sono chiusi per il Labor Day (13h20) e8217 atteso il discorso de Benoit Coeure, membro do Consiglio esecutivo della Bce, confere a conferência 8220la Bce e o programa Omt8221, a Berlino (15h00) el primeiro turno parte all8217ottava edizione del Bled Fórum Estratégico, a Bled, na Eslovénia . (18h30) O primeiro-ministro é o primeiro ministro esloveno Alenka Bratusek, e a reunião da reunião e8217 são uma conferência conjunta. MARTEDI8217 3 settembre MERCOLEDI8217 4 de setembro (09h00) e8217 atteso o presidente do conselho do Conselho Ue, Herman van Rompuy um Bruxelles (10h55) e8217 atteso il discorso de Joerg Asmussen, membro do Consiglio esecutivo della Bce, um Francoforte. La Commissione Ue approvera8217 una raccomandazione sul comparto bancario ombra. E8217 prevista para a conferência com o Comissário Ue Michel Barnier (15h00) no presidente do Conselho Ue Herman van Rompuy com o Presidente da União Europeia, Emma Marcegaglia (18h30) e8217 em Nova Iorque em John Williams, presidente da Igreja de São Francisco (20h00) e8217 attesa la pubblicazione del Beige Reservar o livro Fed (23h00) e8217 para projetar a pubblagem do dia após o almoço (02h00) e8217 atteso o discurso de Narayana Kocherlakota, presidente do Fed di Minneapolis GIOVEDI8217 5 setembro e8217 attesa la decisione sui tassi di interest della Banco do Japão E8217 previsto no G20 a San Pietroburgo, na Rússia. Todas as 14h30 e8217 votos a confirmar conferência do presidente da Comissão, José Manuel Durão Barroso, Presidente do Conselho, Herman van Rompuy (15h00) e8217 atteso il discorso di Narayana Kocherlakota, presidente da Fed di Minneapolis VENERDI8217 6 setembro (07h00) e8217 attesa la pubblicazione del report mensile della Banco do japão Ha inizio il forum Ambrosetti presso Villa d8217Este a Cernobbio E8217 previsto para G20 a San Pietroburgo, na Rússia (14h00) e8217 atteso o discurso de Charles Evans, presidente da Fed di Chacago (19h30) e8217 atteso il discorso de Esther George, presidente da Fed de Kansas City AGENDA 8211 Instalações em Itália e estero 2-8 setembro 2013 (Reuters) LUNED 2 SETTEMBRE MILANO 8211 Gme, inizia contrattazioni 8220Brasa Fisica a Termine del Gas8221. GENOVA 8211 Continua Festa Democrática termina em 09/09. Oggi intervengono Squinzi, Camusso, Bonanni, Angeletti, Matteo Colanino, Beatrice Lorenzin. EUROPA 8211 Bled (Eslovénia), E. Letta partecipa a ottava edizione 8220 Bundled Stratetig Forum8221. 8211 Bruxelles, conferenza stampa di Rasmussen. 8211 S. Pietroburgo, inizia riunione sherpa G20 termina em 5/9. EUA 8211 Mercati chiusi. EUROPA 8211 Berlino, intervence Asmussen su 8220La Bce e il suo programma di acquisto titoli8221 (10,30). TITOLI DI STATO EUROPA 8211 Francia, França, Itália. 8211 Olanda, Tesoro offre Dtc. ITALIA 8211 Markit / Adaci, Pmi manifestatore agosto (9,43). 8211 Istat, lavoro e retribuzioni grandi imprese giugno (10,00). 8211 Ministero Trasporti, dati auto agosto (18,00). 8211 Tesoro, atteso fabbisogno statale agosto. EUROPA 8211 Francia, Markit pubblicaPmi manifatturiero agosto (9,48). 8211 Germania, Markit / Bm pubblica Pmi manifatturiero agosto (9,53). 82. Gran Bretagna, Markit / Cip pubblica Pmi manifatturiero agosto (10,28). 8211 Grecia, Pmi manifatturiero agosto (9,58). 8211 Irlanda, Pmi manifatturiero agosto (6,58). 8211 Spagna, Pmi manifatturiero agosto (9,13). 8211 Zona Euro, Markit pubblica Pmi manifestatore agosto (9,58). ÁSIA 8211 Cina, Hsbc pubblica Pmi manifatturiero finale agosto (3,4). ITALIA 8211 Banca Carige, Cda relata a sua banca d8217Italia. MARTED 3 SETTEMBRE ROMA 8211 Cdm su scuola. GENOVA 8211 Festa Democratica, intervengono Cancellieri, Kyenge, Maroni. EUROPA 8211 Bruxelles, Barroso incontra vice-premier portoghese Portas e ministro Finanze Albuquerque. 8211 Bruxelles, visita di Mario Mauro. 8211 Parigi, 8220Interim Avaliação Econômica8221 Ocse (con proiezioni a breve termine per i Paesi G7 e la Cina (11,00) conferencia stampa do vice capo economista Jorden Elmeskov AUSTRÁLIA 8211 Banca centrale, riunione su tassi di interesse. TITOLI DI STATO EUROPA 8211 Áustria, Tesouro offre 1,65 miliardi titoli di Stato con scadenza 2044 e 2023. 8211 Belgio, Tesouro offre titoli di Stato. 8211 Gran Bretagna, Tesouro offre 1,5 miliardi sterline Indicador gilt scadenza 22/03/2024, cedola 0,125. Grecia offre titoli a 6 mesi EUROPA 8211 Zona euro, prezzi alla produzione luglio (11,00) EUA 8211 Markit, Pmi manifatturiero finle agosto (14,58) 8211 Ism manifatturiero agosto (16,00) ITALIA 8211 Gas Plus , teleconferência 1 semestre (10,30) 8211 Softec, Cda 1 semestre 8211 Rcs, assembleas speciale azionisti di riparmie categoria C (10,30) 8211 Reno De Medici, assembleastraordinaria (12,00) 8211 Ki Group, assemblea ordinaria su ammissione alla negoziazione mercato Objetivo, nomina Cda, compre back e straordinaria eliminazione valore nominale azioni e frazionamento, aumento do capital a a (12,00). MERCOLED 4 SETTEMBRE ROMA 8211 Consiglio dei ministri su esodati. GENOVA 8211 Festa Democrática, intervengono Lupi, Boldrini, Cecilia Guerra. EUROPA 8211 Bruxelles, riunione settimanale Commissione europea (em agenda pacchetto dimisure per regolamentare shadow banking). 8211 Francoforte, intervento Asmussen a conferenza su banche (11,00). 8211 Parigi, Parlamento Francês e Francês em sessione straordinaria por discutere situação em Siria. 8211 Stoccolma, Obama inizia visitafino al 5 settembre. EUROPA 8211 Gran Bretagna, BoE inizia riunione di politica monetaria termina em 5 de setembro. 8211 Svezia, banca centrale inizia riunione di politica monetaria termina il 5 settembre. EUA 8211 Portland, intervento Williams, Fed San Francisco (17,30). ÁSIA 8211 Giappone, BoJ annuncia tassi (17,00) TITOLI DI STATO EUROPA 8211 Alemanha, Tesouro offre 5 miliardi titoli di stato a 5 anni. ITALIA 8211 Markit / Adaci, Pmiservizi agosto (9,43). EUROPA 8211 Francia, província de Luglio (8,45) Markit pubblica Pmi servizi agosto (9,48). 8211 Germania, Markit pubblica Pmi servizi agosto (9,53). 8211 Gran Bretagna, Markit / Cip pubblica Pmi servizi agosto (10,28). 8211 Irlanda, Pmi servizi agosto (6,58). 8211 Spagna, Pmi servizi agosto (9,13). 8211 Zona euro, Markit pubblica Pmi servizi agosto (9,58) Eurostat pubblica commercio dettaglio luglio e seconda stima Pil 2 trimestre (11,00). EUA 8211 Commercio estero luglio (14,30). 8211 Ism New York agosto (15,45). 8211 Escorts Usa settimanali prodotti petroliferi Eia (16,30). 8211 Fed, Livro Bege (20,00). ÁSIA 8211 Cina, Hsbc pubblica Pmi servizi agosto (3,45). ITALIA 8211 Fondazione Carige, Cda. E consiglio di indirizzo. GIOVED 5 SETTEMBRE ROMA 8211 Quirinale, napolitano incontra Juan Evo Morales Ayma (12,00). Câmara 8211, Conferenza capigruppo (16,00). MILANO 8211 Assolombarda, convegno su8221Inovação e Tecnologia para um Futuro Sustentável8221 com Rifkin, Cucchiani, Bárbara Frei (AD di ABB), Federico Golla (AD Siemens), Gubitosi, Patuano (9,00). 8211 Assogestioni annuncia dati raccolta fondi e gestioni luglio. GENOVA 8211 FestaDemocratica, intervengono Bray, Carrozza, Vendola, Giovannini, Cuperlo. RAVENNA 8211 Apresente o volume de conversas de di 8220Dante 2021 8211 Lingua italiana por oggi e do domani8221 com Patuelli, vice DG Bankitalia Signorini (17,30). EUROPA 8211 Bruxelas, audição pública em assembleia geral (9,00). 8211 Bruxelles, Bernab partecipa a convegno organizzato da Gsma, associazione operatori telefonici mobili europei. 8211 Stoccolma, Obama termina visita. 8211 San Pietroburgo, inizia G20 termina 6 de setembro por 1817 Itália presenti Letta e Saccomanni. 8211 Vilnius, inizia riunione ministri, Difesa Ue temrina il 6/9. EUROPA 8211 Gran Bretagna, termina a comunicação da política monetária annuncio tassi. 8211 Svezia, banca centrale termina a riunione di politica monetaria annuncio tassi. 8211 Zona euro, riunione Consiglio Bce, annuncio tassi segue conferência stampa Draghi. EUA 8211 La Crosse, intervento Kocherlakota, Fed Minneapolis (15,00). TITOLI DI STATO EUROPA 8211 França, Tesoro offre Aveia. 8211 Spagna, Tesoro offre titoli di Stato. EUROPA 8211 Francia, disoccupati Ilo 2 trimestre (7,30). 8211 Germania, ordini industria luglio (12,00). USA 8211 Adp, occupati settore privato agosto (14,15) nuove richieste susidi disoccupazione settimanali e revisione produttivit 2 trimestre (14,30) beni durevoli e ordini industria luglio e Ism non manifestatiero agosto (16,00). ITALIA 8211 Intesa SP, termine offerta scambio bond subordinati con titoli Nível 2 da nuova emissione (17,00) 6 dês determina determina. 8211 Carige, scadenza presentazione liste por nuovo Cda. EUROPA 8211 Easyjet, risultati. VENERD 6 SETTEMBRE CERNOBBIO 8211 Oficina Inizia Ambrosetti termina l82178 settembre. GENOVA 8211 Festa Democratica, intervengono Grasso, Fassino, Fassina. EUROPA 8211 San Pietroburgo, termina G20. 8211 Vilnius, riunione ministridifesa Ue. ITALIA 8211 Banca d8217Italia, comunicata su posizione banche Italia con Bce a fine agosto. EUA 8211 Greenvile, intervenção Evans, Fed Chicago (14,00). 8211 Omaha, intervento George, Fed Kansas City (19,30). ITALIA 8211 Tesoro, annuncio quantitativi Bot em asta l821711 settembre. ITALIA 8211 Istat, stima preliminar commercio estero extra Ue luglio (10,00). 8211 Istat, fatturato dei servizi 2 trimestre (11,00). 8211 Anfia-Unrae, rapporto veicoli commerciali agosto. EUROPA 8211 Francia, fiducia consumatori agosto e bilancia commerciale luglio (8,45). 8211 Germania, bilancia commerciale luglio (8,00) produção industrial luglio (12,00). 8211 Gran Bretagna, produzindo industriale e manifatturie e bilancia commerciale luglio (10,30). 8211 Grecia, revisão Pil 2 trimestre (11,00). 8211 Portogallo, Pil finale 2 trimestre (11,00) bilancia commerciale luglio (12,00). 8211 Zona euro, prima stima bilancia dei pagamenti 2 trimestre. EUA 8211 Occupati non agricoli, disoccupazione, mídia guadagni orari, mídia minério lavorate settimanali agosto (14,30). ÁSIA 8211 Giappone, principal indicador luglio (7,00). EUROPA 8211 AirFrance Klm, risultati. SABATO 7 SETTEMBRE CERNOBBIO 8211 Oficina Continua Ambrosetti termina l82178 settembre. GENOVA 8211 Festa Democratica, intervista a Epifani. EUROPA 8211 Tampere (Finlândia), intervento ministro Finanze Jutta PaulinaUrpilainen (12,45). AUSTRÁLIA 8211 Elezioni politiche. ITALIA 8211 Borgosesia, assemblea ordinaria (9,00). DOMENICA 8 SETTEMBRE CERNOBBIO 8211 Oficina Termina Ambrosetti. GENOVA 8211 Festa Democrática, intervenção Moavero Milanesi, Violante, Pansa, De Vincenti. ÁSIA 8211 Cina, attesa da oggi al 15/9 M2 agosto. Bilancia commerciale agosto (4,00). SEGUNDA-FEIRA, 02 DE SETEMBRO Os dados do PMI da Manufatura de agosto são divulgados para os mercados emergentes, a área do euro e o Reino Unido. No Japão, as vendas de veículos e os números de gastos de capital são publicados. Halifax fornece uma atualização sobre os preços das casas no Reino Unido. O orçamento mais recente é entretanto publicado na Itália. Dados do comércio internacional são divulgados no Brasil e na Coréia do Sul. TERÇA-FEIRA, 3 DE SETEMBRO Os números das vendas no varejo do BRC são divulgados no Reino Unido antes do último relatório PMI da Markit / CIPS UK Construction. A última decisão política do Banco da Reserva da Austrália é anunciada. A zona do euro vê os últimos números de preços ao produtor. Os PMIs de fabricação são entretanto publicados nos EUA e no Canadá. Gastos com construção e os resultados mais recentes da pesquisa sobre o otimismo do consumidor do IBD também são divulgados nos EUA. QUARTA-FEIRA, 04 DE SETEMBRO Os serviços e os dados do PMI da economia global são publicados mundialmente na quarta-feira pela Markit. Os dados do PIB para a Austrália e a zona do euro (segunda estimativa) são entretanto emitidos. A zona do euro também vê os números do comércio varejista, enquanto os números de preços ao produtor são divulgados na França. O Federal Reserve publica a última edição do livro bege nos EUA. Atualizações sobre comércio internacional e dados de vendas de veículos seguem. O Banco do Canadá anuncia sua última decisão de política monetária QUINTA-FEIRA, 5 DE SETEMBRO Os anúncios de política monetária foram feitos no Japão, no Reino Unido e na zona do euro na quinta-feira. Os dados do PIB para o segundo trimestre são entretanto divulgados na Coreia do Sul. Augusts O Índice de Mercados Emergentes do HSBC é publicado. Os números do PMI de construção e os números de pedidos de fábrica são emitidos na Alemanha. Estatísticas de desemprego francesas também são publicadas. Os EUA vêem os resultados mais recentes das pesquisas de emprego e pesquisa de não-manufatura da ISP. Pedidos de bens duráveis, reivindicações iniciais de desemprego, produtividade e custos de mão-de-obra seguem. SEXTA-FEIRA, 06 DE SETEMBRO Os dados do PMI do Setor Global para agosto são publicados pela Markit. O principal indicador é publicado no Japão, juntamente com o último relatório econômico mensal do Banco do Japão. Os dados do comércio internacional são divulgados na Alemanha, França e Reino Unido. Os indicadores franceses de sentimento do consumidor do INSEE também são publicados. Os números da produção industrial são vistos na Alemanha, na Espanha e no Reino Unido. Números de folha de pagamento e desemprego não agrícolas são publicados nos EUA. O Canadá também vê dados de desemprego e produtividade do trabalho. Mercati: i dati macro italiani esteri della prossima settimana (MF Dow Jones) Questões relacionadas macroeconomicamente attesi por la prossiga settimana sulla base delle indicazioni dellUfficio Studi e Analisi Finanziaria di Banca Imi: LUNEDI8217 26 AGOSTO eu mercati em Gran Bretagna sono chiusi por festivita8217 (10h00) e8217 atestar o discurso de Jens Weidmann, presidente do Bundesbank MARTEDI8217 27 AGOSTO (12h50) e8217 atteso discorso di John Williams, presidente da Reserva Federal de São Francisco sulla politica monetaria (membro não votante Fomc) (13h00) e8217 atteso il discorso di Benoit Coeure, membro da Banca centrale europea (19h00) e8217 atteso il discorso de Joerg Asmussen, membro del Comitato esecutivo da Banca centrale europea MERCOLEDI8217 28 AGOSTO (13h45) e8217 atteso discorso di Mark Carney, governador do Banco da Inglaterra GIOVEDI8217 29 AGOSTO (09h15) e8217 atteso o discurso de Ewald Nowotny, membro do Consiglio direttivo della Bce (14h00) e8217 atteso il discorso di Yves Mersch, governador da Banca central do Lussemburgo (14h50) e8217 atteso il discorso de James Bullard, presidente da Reserva Federal de St. Louis (membro votante Fomc) (20h00) e8217 atteso il discorso de Jeffrey Lacker, presidente della Fed di Richmond VENERDI8217 30 AGOSTO (01h45) e (15h00) sono ats i discorsi di James Bullard, presidente da Reserva Federal de St. Louis (membro votante Fomc) SEGUNDA-FEIRA, AGOSTO 26 (00h45) Nova Zelândia: Foreign Trade (July) Forecast : NZ190 milhões Nova balança comercial da Zealands provavelmente moderada em julho após o superávit de Junes. As exportações provavelmente cresceram ano a ano, impulsionadas pelos preços mundiais mais fortes das commodities. Olhando para o futuro, a maciez persistente nos preços dos lácteos de kiwi e acima da tendência deve suportar os volumes dos exportadores, embora isso seja parcialmente compensado pela fraqueza na China. (07h00) Cingapura: Produção Industrial (julho) Previsão: 2.2 A produção industrial de Cingapura1717 provavelmente melhorou em julho. A demanda por eletrônica global parece estar chegando a um ponto crítico e está virando uma esquina. A produção de produtos farmacêuticos foi fraca em junho, mas este foi um fenômeno cíclico e deve virar em breve. (09h00) Espanha: Índice de Preços ao Produtor (Julho) Previsão: 1.5 O crescimento anual dos preços no produtor em Espanha provavelmente recuperou ligeiramente em Julho. Em termos mensais, os preços ao produtor subiram modestamente, em julho, o preço do petróleo bruto Brent, um dos principais impulsionadores de insumos como o petróleo, foi em média 3% em relação ao mês anterior. O ganho em relação ao ano anterior será impulsionado também por uma base de comparação excepcionalmente baixa em relação a 2012. (11h00) Zona do Euro: Indicadores Principais do Conference Board (julho) Previsão: 108,2 A confiança aumentou na zona do euro nos últimos meses. O indicador de sentimento econômico do ZEW se recuperou em agosto, com o indicador de situação atual também aumentando. O PMI composto também subiu acima de 50, o limite de expansão, pela primeira vez em 1 ano em julho. A zona do euro começou a se recuperar da recessão no segundo trimestre, registrando seu primeiro crescimento em quase dois anos, de acordo com a estimativa preliminar. (14h30) Pedidos de Bens Duráveis ​​dos EUA (julho) Previsão: -4,0 no geral, 0,5 ex de transporte Após o flatlining em junho, os bons pedidos de duráveis ​​centrais parecem saltar mais alto em julho, em linha com o ganho do ISM Manufacturing Indexs. Os novos pedidos no ISM Index subiram seis pontos, atingindo uma alta de dois anos, de 58,3. Esse sinal de demanda pode elevar ainda mais a produção industrial dos EUA, o que pode construir uma tendência positiva ao lado do ganho anualizado de 5,4 para pedidos duráveis ​​de núcleo no segundo trimestre. (23h00) Coreia do Sul: Índice de Sentimento do Consumidor (agosto) Previsão: 105 O índice de sentimento do consumidor do Banco da Coreia8217s provavelmente se manteve estável em 105 em agosto. Os consumidores estão otimistas em relação às perspectivas, graças ao crescimento robusto do PIB e ao crescimento dos empregos, bem como à estabilização dos mercados imobiliário e financeiro. TERÇA-FEIRA, 27 DE AGOSTO (08h05) Reino Unido: Índice de Preços Habitacionais Nacionais (Agosto) Previsão: 3.3 O mercado imobiliário do Reino Unido está melhorando continuamente após três anos de estagnação. Os preços das casas no Reino Unido subiram 0,8 m / me 3,9 y / a em julho, após um aumento de 0,3 m / m e 1,9 y / y em junho. O esquema de ajuda à compra apoiado pelo governo, combinado com condições de crédito mais frouxas, impulsionará o mercado imobiliário em 2013. (10h00) Alemanha: Ifo Business Climate Index (agosto) Previsão: 106,9 O índice alemão de clima de negócios IFO subiu para o terceiro mês consecutivo em julho para 106,2, uma alta de quatro meses. O índice deverá subir ainda mais nos próximos meses, após a economia ter desempenho melhor que o esperado no segundo trimestre. Estimativas preliminares colocam o crescimento da produção alemã em 0,7 no segundo trimestre, depois de uma estrofe anterior. O PMI industrial da Germanys Markit saltou para 50,7 em julho, de 48,6 anteriormente, subindo acima do limite de expansão de 50. (10h30) Hong Kong: Comércio Exterior (julho) Previsão: - HK45 bilhões Crescimento mais forte na China apoiou a atividade portuária de Hong Kongs em julho. As exportações e as importações provavelmente se recuperaram e, no balanço, isso deixa o déficit comercial mensal em HK45 bilhões para julho, mais estreito que o déficit de junho de HK49,7 bilhões, mas maior do que o déficit de julho de 2012 de HK40,1 bilhões. (15h00) EUA SampP Case-Shiller Início Índice de Preços (Junho) Previsão: 12,0 variação anual no índice de 20 cidades Os preços das casas no índice Case-Shiller podem subir para uma nova alta de cinco anos, apoiada por um sólido crescimento a longo prazo nas vendas de casas. As vendas de casas novas e existentes em casas unifamiliares aumentaram 13 anos no segundo trimestre, alimentando um círculo virtuoso de vendas e preços em alta. Ainda assim, espera-se que a taxa de variação anual dos preços comece a desacelerar em junho, com a extensão da desaceleração a ser determinada pela forma como os consumidores se ajustam às taxas de hipoteca mais altas. (16h00) Confiança do Consumidor dos Conselhos de Conferência dos EUA (Agosto) Previsão: 79.8 A leitura do Quadro de Conferências sobre o sentimento do consumidor para Agosto deverá retroceder, seguindo o exemplo da pesquisa de Michigan. No entanto, preocupações temporárias relacionadas a um ritmo ligeiramente mais lento de contratação ou custos de combustível caros podem dar lugar aos benefícios da crescente riqueza do consumidor. A última pesquisa da Conference Board descobriu que as ações das pessoas planejavam comprar casas e carros nos próximos seis meses, apontando para um maior conforto com as perspectivas econômicas. (18h00) França: Candidatos a emprego (julho) Previsão: 3,29 milhões O número de candidatos a emprego na França provavelmente registrou seu 23º aumento mensal consecutivo em julho, juntamente com o número de candidatos a emprego a longo prazo. A contratação privada é fraca e o setor público está basicamente congelado, embora a recessão da França tenha terminado no último trimestre. Baixas margens de lucro e baixo investimento pesam na criação de empregos, e o crescimento do PIB ainda é baixo demais para provocar uma recuperação. QUARTA-FEIRA, 28 DE AGOSTO (09h30) Tailândia: Produção Industrial (julho) Previsão: -2,6 A produção industrial na Tailândia deve ter diminuído em 3,5% em junho. A demanda global incalculável e o abrandamento da economia doméstica estão pesando na produção. No entanto, a produção provavelmente já foi superada, uma vez que melhorias recentes na economia global e um fortalecimento da economia japonesa devem elevar a produção nos próximos meses. (10h00) Zona do Euro: Agregados Monetários (Julho) Previsão: 2.2 As zonas do euro A oferta de moeda M3 cresceu mais lentamente em Junho. A taxa de crescimento ano-a-ano no fornecimento de moeda M3 caiu para 2,3 de 2,9 em maio, uma vez que o aumento dos depósitos overnight diminuiu ligeiramente enquanto os instrumentos negociáveis ​​se contraíram. Espera-se que o crescimento anual do M3 enfraqueça nos próximos meses devido à atividade económica ainda fraca. O crescimento dos preços ao consumidor ficou estável em 1,6 em julho, abaixo da meta do ECB 8217, apesar dos preços elevados do petróleo. (10h00) Itália: Vendas no Varejo (junho) Previsão: 0,2 Embora o aumento do desemprego e a queda nos preços das moradias devam manter os gastos das famílias mais fracos, alguns aumentos podem ser vistos nos próximos meses. As vendas no varejo da Italys cresceram pela primeira vez em um ano em maio e a confiança do consumidor atingiu uma alta de dois anos em julho, depois que o governo adiou um aumento de impostos programado até outubro e congelou as taxas de propriedade devidas em junho. (16h00) Previsão de Vendas de Casas Pendentes nos EUA (julho): 0.5 O Índice de Vendas de Casas Pendentes parece desfazer uma queda de junho e subir modestamente em julho. A alta das vendas de imóveis residenciais é limitada no curto prazo, já que o índice de hipotecas para aquisição da MBA caiu 7 nas últimas quatro semanas em relação ao período anterior de quatro semanas. Na medida em que taxas hipotecárias mais altas retardam a recuperação de moradias, o Fed pode adotar uma abordagem mais cautelosa para reduzir o QE3. QUINTA-FEIRA, 29 DE AGOSTO (01H50) Japão: Vendas no Varejo (julho) Previsão: 0,5 O crescimento constante da demanda do consumidor japonês ainda não está aparecendo nos números do varejo. As vendas no varejo subiram acima das expectativas em junho, mas esperamos que isso tenha esfriado em julho, já que a atividade de atacado continua fraca e a tendência subjacente para o varejo ainda é bastante fraca. Os gastos discricionários em veículos a motor continuam caindo. (04h00) Filipinas: PIB (2013T2) Previsão: 7,2 Depois de crescer quase 8 anos no primeiro trimestre de 2013, a economia das Filipinas continuou expandindo em um sólido ritmo nos três meses até junho. A produção está crescendo a um ritmo saudável, impulsionada inteiramente pela demanda interna. As empresas voltadas para exportação enfrentam dificuldades com a demanda global mais fraca. A chave estará nos números de investimento fixo e de construção. A onda de construção do primeiro trimestre parece ter desacelerado e pode arrastar o crescimento do headline abaixo de 7. Nosso modelo de rastreamento sugere que o crescimento do PIB foi apenas um pouco mais fraco no segundo trimestre. (08h45) França: Business Survey (agosto) Previsão: 96 Espera-se que o índice de confiança industrial France8217s cresça um pouco em agosto, já que a economia mostra sinais de recuperação e os dados do PIB do terceiro trimestre parecem positivos. A França saiu da recessão e deve começar a se recuperar nos próximos trimestres. No entanto, a confiança dos fabricantes permanece sob pressão da demanda constantemente baixa, e assim espera-se que o índice aumente muito lentamente. (09h00) Espanha: PIB (2013Q2) Previsão: -1,7 A recessão de chuvas parece ter moderado no segundo trimestre. A economia provavelmente se contraiu, mas menos que no primeiro trimestre. O consumo privado está sob pressão do alto desemprego e do crédito apertado. A taxa de desemprego caiu ligeiramente, mas permaneceu acima de 26. Os bancos locais estão altamente expostos ao mercado imobiliário e restringiram o crédito para melhorar seus índices de capital, em vez de reduzir os dividendos em dinheiro ou emitir novas ações. (10h00) Alemanha: Situação do Emprego (Agosto) Previsão: 6,8 A taxa de desemprego ajustada sazonalmente manteve-se em 6,8 em Julho, embora o número de desempregados tenha diminuído ligeiramente. Apesar de uma perspectiva ainda incerta, a economia alemã está acelerando e deve apresentar um crescimento modesto neste ano. A estimativa preliminar para o crescimento do PIB do segundo trimestre superou as expectativas em 0.7, enquanto o PMI composto da Markit saltou para 52.1 em julho, de 50.4 anteriormente. No entanto, demorará algum tempo para o mercado de trabalho melhorar em resposta a estes desenvolvimentos. (10h00) Itália: Confiança do Consumidor (agosto) Previsão: 96,5 Italys índice de confiança do consumidor saltou para 97,3 em julho, sua maior leitura desde julho de 2011, como os consumidores ficaram mais otimistas sobre as perspectivas. Todos os sub índices melhoraram depois que o governo do primeiro-ministro, Enrico Lettas, adiou o aumento do imposto sobre valor agregado até outubro e atrasou a cobrança de uma propriedade em junho. Apesar das melhorias, os gastos das famílias permanecerão sem brilho em meio ao desemprego elevado, ao efeito negativo da riqueza decorrente da queda dos preços das moradias e do crédito apertado. (11h00) Itália: Confiança nos negócios (agosto) Previsão: 91,5 A confiança na manufatura subiu para 91,7 em julho, sua maior leitura desde novembro de 2011, em meio aos esforços do gabinete do primeiro-ministro Enrico Lettas para impulsionar o emprego e estimular o crescimento econômico. Enquanto isso, o índice de gerentes de compras para manufatura saltou de 49,1 no mês anterior para 50,4 em julho, impulsionado pelo crescimento da produção e novos pedidos e por um declínio mais lento no emprego. Embora o desemprego elevado e o crédito apertado continuem a ser um obstáculo nos próximos meses, um novo estímulo fiscal e o aumento dos salários reais poderão apoiar o consumo das famílias. (12h00) Alemanha: Empréstimos por Bancos (Julho) Previsão: -0,9 Os empréstimos bancários às famílias cresceram modestamente, enquanto os empréstimos a empresas não financeiras caíram em termos mensais e anuais em junho. Os empréstimos às famílias retornaram recentemente aos níveis de pré-recessão, mas os empréstimos a corporações não financeiras permanecem ligeiramente abaixo desses níveis, potencialmente limitando o crescimento. A recuperação pode aumentar o custo dos empréstimos na Alemanha e reduzir os empréstimos no futuro próximo. (13h05) Reino Unido: Confiança do Consumidor (agosto) Previsão: -14 O indicador de confiança do consumidor do Reino Unido melhorou para -16 em julho de -21 anteriormente, atingindo uma alta de três anos. Embora a reforma do sistema de pagamentos previdenciários e as persistentes preocupações com a segurança do trabalho pesem sobre a confiança neste ano, desenvolvimentos positivos como a tentativa de recuperação do mercado imobiliário e o afrouxamento do crédito estão impulsionando o sentimento doméstico. (14h30) PIB dos EUA (2013T2) (segunda estimativa) Previsão: 2.2 Os últimos trimestres devem ser revisados ​​para cima, com os dados recentes mostrando um déficit comercial menor. Contribuições negativas dos cortes do governo foram quase apagadas no segundo trimestre, subtraindo 0,1 da produção total, em comparação com um arrasto de 0,8 no primeiro trimestre. Se o governo puder fazer a transição para um crescimento estável dos gastos, toda a economia finalmente terá todos os cilindros acionados em apoio a uma recuperação mais saudável. SEXTA-FEIRA, 30 DE AGOSTO (01h00) Coréia do Sul: Produção Industrial (julho) Previsão: -1,5 A produção industrial coreana caiu nos primeiros seis meses do ano, e espera-se apenas uma melhora lenta no segundo semestre. A indústria eletrônica está apoiando a produção, embora o impulso dos lançamentos de smartphones tenha diminuído. A produção de automóveis está sob pressão devido a uma combinação de disputas trabalhistas, fraca demanda global e firmas japonesas recém-competitivas. (01h30) Japão: Índice de Preços ao Consumidor (Julho) Previsão: 0,4 O crescimento do núcleo do CPI saltou em junho, com a diminuição da deflação dos preços dos alimentos e a continuação dos preços da energia a subir, ano após ano. A demanda mais forte, juntamente com o aumento dos preços dos insumos ligados ao iene mais fraco, continuará pressionando os preços para cima. A inflação deve ser mais alta no curto prazo. (01h30) Japão: Situação do Emprego (Julho) Previsão: 3.9 A taxa de desemprego do Japão está agora a baixar, à medida que a economia se expande e as empresas estão mais dispostas a contratar. O índice de empregos para candidatos, que mede a demanda por mão de obra, ainda é fraco, no entanto, sugerindo que a taxa de desemprego pode não ser muito menor. O crescimento do emprego deve se estabilizar até que o investimento empresarial melhore. (01h30) Japão: Inquérito às Despesas dos Agregados Familiares (Julho) Previsão: 1 Os gastos das famílias dos trabalhadores estão a crescer lentamente, espelhando o resto dos números dos consumidores, que mostram que a demanda está a subir a um ritmo constante. É provável que os gastos permaneçam ligeiramente moderados no curto prazo. A confiança melhorou, mas ainda está abaixo do par, e a perspectiva econômica é incerta. (01h50) Japão: Produção Industrial (julho) Previsão: 4 A produção despencou em junho, mas parece uma só. A tendência subjacente para a produção é sólida, impulsionada por um aumento na demanda de exportação e fortes vendas internas. As estimativas futuras apontam para um aumento na produção de julho. (02h00) Coreia do Sul: Vendas no varejo (julho) Previsão: 0,2 As vendas no varejo coreano aumentaram 0,4 de abril a junho e, provavelmente, registraram um leve ganho em julho. O estímulo fiscal e monetário, o sólido crescimento do emprego e da renda, a estabilização dos mercados imobiliário e financeiro e o aumento da confiança são fatores positivos para os gastos. Mas os ganhos estão sendo limitados pela alta dívida das famílias e pelos custos de aluguel, que estão comprimindo os orçamentos domésticos. (07h00) Japão: Início da Habitação (Julho) Previsão: 13 Início da habitação está a crescer no Japão, já que o ciclo de reconstrução está agora a todo vapor. A queda na construção residencial do segundo trimestre foi um pouco surpreendente e é improvável que se repita nos próximos trimestres, uma vez que há um forte fluxo de demanda. O início da habitação continuará crescendo a um ritmo de dois dígitos. (08h00) Alemanha: Vendas no Varejo (julho) Previsão: 0,3 As vendas no varejo alemão devem mostrar uma recuperação para julho, após uma queda em junho. O PMI de varejo da Markit Alemanha subiu para 56 em julho, seu nível mais alto desde o início de 2011, indicando melhora no sentimento do consumidor. A taxa de desemprego provavelmente permaneceu estável em julho, em 6,8, e a recuperação econômica, com o PIB preliminar real subindo 0,7% ao ano nos três meses até junho, deve aumentar os gastos das famílias nos próximos meses. (09h00) Espanha: Vendas a Retalho (Julho) Previsão: -5,1 As vendas a retalho em Espanha provavelmente caíram em termos homólogos em Julho, menos do que no mês anterior. O índice de vendas no varejo geralmente aumenta fortemente em julho por causa das vendas de verão. No entanto, as vendas deste ano foram pressionadas pela alta taxa de desemprego e pelo crédito apertado. A taxa de desemprego caiu ligeiramente no segundo trimestre, mas permaneceu acima de 26. (09h30) Tailândia: Consumo Privado (julho) Previsão: 1,3 O consumo privado tailandês provavelmente melhorou em julho, acompanhando o crescimento de 0,8% a / a registrado em junho. No entanto, a tendência subjacente permanece fraca, uma vez que a economia liderada pelas exportações está sentindo os efeitos negativos da fraca demanda regional e global. Esperamos que o consumo melhore modestamente nos próximos meses, uma vez que as condições de trabalho favoráveis ​​e a política monetária acomodativa apóiam os gastos das famílias. (09h30) Tailândia: Previsão do Comércio Exterior (julho): 430 milhões O saldo comercial da Tailândia deve ter diminuído em julho, após o superávit de 588 milhões de junho. Export growth likely improved on a year-ago basis as stronger Japanese demand and steadily improving U. S. and European economies lift global activity. The worst of the export slowdown appears over, and exports are expected to recover over the rest of the year, albeit at a soft pace. (10h00) Italy: Employment Situation (July) Forecast: 12 Italys unemployment rate fell slightly to 12.1 in June, the first decline in four months. The jobless rate remained near its highest level since 1977. Italys recession eased in the second quarter, as real GDP fell only 0.2 after a 0.6 drop in the three months to March. Although we expect Italy8217s economy to return to growth in the third quarter, the jobless rate will remain elevated in coming months. Stabilising industry and a new fiscal stimulus could lower the unemployment rate at the end of 2013. (10h30) United Kingdom: BoE Lending to Individuals (July) Forecast: 1.9 bil Credit to UK households is improving slowly. Net lending to UK households rose by 1.5 billion in June, compared with a revised 1.2 billion increase the previous month. A gradual expansion in credit is anticipated through 2013, bolstered by the Bank of England8217s funding-for-lending scheme, but bank capital requirements and weak demand are key downside risks. (11h00) Euro Zone: Business and Consumer Sentiment (August) Forecast: 94 Business and consumer confidence in the euro zone are expected to increase in August but remain below long-term averages. Concern about the economic outlook likely eased a little after GDP rose in the three months to June for the first time in seven quarters, supporting confidence. Also, fears about the euro zones sovereign debt crisis have waned somewhat. Nevertheless, confidence remains under pressure from high unemployment and tight credit. Banks will keep credit tight because there is a risk the winner of Germanys general election later this year will allow further write-downs of Greek debt. (11h00) Euro Zone: Preliminary Consumer Price Index (August) Forecast: 1.7 Euro zones consumer prices likely rose 1.7 y/y in August, after a 1.6 rise the previous month on higher energy prices. A weak economy, rising unemployment, and subdued wage growth will help contain inflation pressures, but rising oil prices remain a risk. Earlier this month the ECB held its main policy rate at 0.5, and ECB President Mario Draghi said he expects it to remain near its current level or lower for an extended period. (11h00) Euro Zone: Unemployment (July) Forecast: 12.1 We look for a euro zone unemployment rate of 12.1 in July, unchanged for a fifth month. The jobless rate is either at or approaching its peak for the current economic cycle. The region8217s economy grew in the second quarter but is still weak. Employers will not start make major hiring plans until they are convinced that the recovery is sustainable. (12h00) Italy: Producer Price Index (July) Forecast: -0.6 Italys producer prices declined 0.7 in June from a year earlier, following a 1.1 drop in May. Although manufacturing shows signs of stabilization, it still faces headwinds. Weak domestic consumption due to elevated unemployment and tight credit will be a key dampener. Underlying price pressures remain weak, but rising energy prices pose a risk. (14h00) India: GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 4.5 The Indian economy has been steadily decelerating for the past three years and is now growing well below its trend rate. All sectors of the economy have slowed. Manufacturing is weak, construction and fixed investment are growing very slowly, export-facing industries are struggling, and even the oncestrong service sector industries have cooled in recent quarters. None of this appeared to have turned around in the three months to June, as the instability created by the weak central government continued to weigh on confidence and demand. (14h30) U. S.A. Personal Income amp Spending (July) Forecast: 0.2 income, 0.3 spending Julys slower pace of hiring can translate into slight gains for personal income in that month. Both wages and consumers spending growth are in firmly positive territory, yet stuck at below average paces. Real spending growth equaled this years high by expanding 2.0 yearly to June, but that pace trails average rates in excess of 3 seen in previous economic recoveries. (15h55) U. S.A. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (August) (Final) Forecast: 80.8 The first reading for consumer sentiment in the August Michigan survey missed expectations and sunk to a four-month low. That shortfall highlights the downside risks that still permeate the long-term outlook, particularly global political risks. Julys reading of 85.1 was right near the historical average for this survey, which indicates that breaking into above average territory will be a bumpy road. MONDAY, AUGUST 26 Corporate services prices data are published in Japan. Spanish producer prices numbers for July are also released. Durable goods orders data are the only notable economic release in the US. TUESDAY, AUGUST 27 German retail sales figures are released ahead of business sentiment indicators from IFO. Updates on UK and US house prices are published by Nationwide and SampP Case-Shiller respectively. The US also sees consumer confidence data from the Conference Board, as well as the latest regional survey results from the Dallas and Richmond Feds. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28 The latest findings from the CBI distributive trades survey are issued in the UK. Money supply data are published for the euro area as a whole. Consumer confidence data from GfK are released in Germany in advance of Italian retail sales numbers. In the US, pending home sales numbers and weekly MBA mortgage data are published. The latest monetary policy decision is meanwhile announced in Brazil. THURSDAY, AUGUST 29 Japanese retail sales numbers for July are published on Thursday. Business confidence data are released for France (INSEE), and followed by consumer and business sentiment indicators for Italy (ISTAT). Flash estimates for consumer prices are issued in Germany and Spain. The latter also sees the final estimate of GDP for the second quarter. Unemployment data are also released in Germany, with Italian hourly wages numbers following. The second estimate of GDP is issued in the US alongside initial jobless claims figures FRIDAY, AUGUST 30 Consumer prices, household spending, unemployment, construction orders, housing starts and industrial production data for July are all published in Japan. Japan manufacturing PMI data for August are meanwhile released by Markit. GDP data for the second quarter are meanwhile released in India. Consumer confidence (GFK), mortgage approvals and money supply figures (Bank of England) are all issued in the UK. The eurozone sees a host of sentiment indicators from the European Commission. The flash estimate of consumer prices in August and unemployment data for July follow. Retail sales and trade balance data are meanwhile published in Spain, alongside Italian unemployment and inflation numbers. Personal income and spending data are published in the US. Chicago PMI numbers and the final estimate of consumer confidence by the University of Michigan follow. Mercati: i dati macro italiani ed esteri della prossima settimana (MF Dow Jones) Questi i dati macroeconomci attesi per la prossima settimana sulla base delle indicazioni dellUfficio Studi e Analisi Finanziaria di Banca Imi: LUNEDI8217 19 agosto MARTEDI8217 20 agosto Il Cancelliere tedesco Angela Merkel fa visita al campo di concentramento di Dachau, in Germania. MERCOLEDI8217 21 agosto (10h00) il presidente del Consiglio, Enrico Letta, sara8217 a colloquio a Vienna con il cancelliere austriaco, Werner Faymann. L8217incontro si svolgera8217 presso la Cancelleria Federale austriaca. Seguira8217 un punto stampa congiunto (20h00) e8217 attesa la pubblicazione delle minute del Fomc del 30-31 luglio GIOVEDI8217 22 agosto Ha inizio il simposio economico 8216Jackson Hole8217 presso la Fed di Kansas City (20h00) e8217 atteso il discorso di Richard Fisher, presidente della Fed di Dallas VENERDI8217 23 agosto (12h00) la Bce annuncia i rimborsi dei fondi della prima e della seconda Ltro a 3 anni Prosegue il simposio economico di 8216Jackson Hole8217 presso la Fed di Kansas City E8217 atteso il discorso di Janet Yellen, vice presidente della Federal Reserve, presso il forum di Jackson hole MONDAY, AUGUST 19 (01h50) Japan: Foreign Trade (July) Forecast: -500 billion Japans trade balance has narrowed in recent months as export growth continues to outpace imports. Exporters have benefited from the cheaper yen but should soon see a lift from better global demand as Europe stabilizes and the U. S. economy strengthens. Imports are growing solidly as domestic demand firms. (04h30) Thailand: GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 4.1 The Thai economy has hit a major speed bump. The array of government handouts and flood-related reconstruction that lifted the economy in 2012 has faded. Monthly household consumption, export and production data suggest the economy expanded by 4.1 y/y in the second quarter, down from 5.3 a quarter before. (10h05) Spain: Lending by Credit Institutions (June) Forecast: -12.9 Domestic lending by credit institutions in Spain likely continued to deteriorate in June. Demand for credit remains under pressure as high unemployment and the weak economic outlook discourage consumers and businesses from borrowing. Strict regulation and Spains weak banking sector are constraining the credit supply. TUESDAY, AUGUST 20 (08h00) Germany: Producer Price Index (July) Forecast: 0.3 Producer price inflation remains subdued. Although oil prices are trending upward again, they will have only a modest impact on producer prices. According to Markit Economics, the fall in average input prices in manufacturing in July was the largest in four years. German producer price growth is likely to ease further on continuously weak demand in the coming months and because of the strengthening euro. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 21 (09h30) Thailand: Monetary Policy (August) Forecast: 2.5 The Bank of Thailand will likely keep rates unchanged at its August meeting. High-frequency trade, production and household consumption data suggest the economy is slowing. Inflation pressures remain subdued, allowing the central bank to maintain an easing policy bias. Our baseline forecast assumes no further rate cuts in 2013 however, if the economy continues to deteriorate, further rate cuts are likely. (10h30) United Kingdom: Public Finance (July) Forecast: 500 million The UK8217s public sector balance, excluding financial interventions, reported a deficit of 8.5 billion in June, after a revised deficit of 11 billion a month earlier and a deficit of 11.9 billion a year earlier. A small surplus is forecast for July, with improving economic growth boosting corporate tax revenues. Nonetheless, it will take several years for U. K. public finances to return to a sustainable path. So, although policymakers in other countries are starting to question strict fiscal consolidation, the U. K. government is holding firm to its commitment to austerity. Welfare benefit changes are the key fiscal tightening measure this year. (12h00) Malaysia: GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 4.9 Although the economy isnt firing on all cylinders, Malaysia bounced back from a weak opening quarter to post trend-like growth in the second quarter. Weve factored in a 4.9 year-over-year gain, up from the first quarter8217s 4.1. Industrial production, which equates to 35 of total output, recovered on the back of rising energy production, which helped offset weakness in electronics output. The governments commitment to develop infrastructure and structures kept construction strong, while services output remained robust thanks to low unemployment and rising wages. (16h00) U. S.A. Existing Home Sales (July) Forecast: 5.1 million Existing home sales are expected to show little change in July amid concerns that higher mortgage rates will weigh on housing activity. A weekly index of mortgage applications for home purchases fell 5 in the three weeks ending August 2nd against the previous three week period. Yet given rising incomes and the deep price discounts relative to past peaks, homes remain highly affordable despite the rising cost of credit. (20h00) U. S.A. FOMC Meeting Minutes Minutes from the July FOMC meeting will provide additional insight about when tapering of QE3 might begin. The balance of opinions from market analysts predict that asset purchases will be reduced starting at the September meeting, and mostly positive economic signals do not contradict that sentiment. Yet increased Fed vigilance against deflation risks promote an easing bias that will not be quick to wind down extraordinary stimulus. THURSDAY, AUGUST 22 (12h00) Spain: Foreign Trade (June) Forecast: -2 billion Spains foreign trade balance likely deteriorated, not seasonally adjusted, in June compared with the previous month. The trade deficit typically worsens on a month-ago basis in June. Weak domestic demand is expected to have kept a lid on imports, while subdued economic activity in Spains key trading partners probably dampened exports. (16h00) U. S.A. Leading Indicators Index (July) Forecast: 0.5 A steeper yield curve and higher stock prices can help the July Leading Indicators Index to its largest gain in three months. Markets have reacted negatively to the threat of higher interest rates, yet higher rates coming as a function of faster growth would ultimately be welcomed. With the Fed far removed from running a restrictive monetary policy and inflation dormant, a wider yield curve that signals faster growth can accompany faster corporate profit growth and lift financial markets. FRIDAY, AUGUST 23 (08h00) Germany GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 0.7 According to a preliminary estimate, German output expanded 0.7 q/q in the second quarter after it was revised to no change in the previous stanza. Consumer and business confidence has improved significantly from the beginning of the year. Stable private consumption combined with increased investment in construction likely powered German growth. Net exports have likely remained subdued because of weak demand from the euro zone and the underperformance of Asian economies. Moodys Analytics expects the economy to expand 0.4 in 2013. (10h00) Taiwan: Domestic Trade (July) Forecast: 0.5 Domestic trade likely followed industrial production higher in July. The improving global economy likely lifted spirits about future economic conditions, leading consumption spending to rise in year-on-year terms. We expect industrial production to gradually improve over the second half of 2013, bringing domestic trade with it. (10h00) Taiwan: Industrial Production (July) Forecast: 0.9 Taiwan8217s industrial production likely enjoyed a mild uptick in July, after June8217s 0.4 y/y fall. Smartphones and tablets have been doing relatively well through the sustained downtrend in tech demand, partly offsetting the impact of waning demand for personal computers. The US recovery being on track is good news for Taiwan8217s manufacturing, given the U. S. is the largest final destination for Taiwan8217s consumer electronics. We expect production to drift higher in the second half of 2013. (10h30) United Kingdom: GDP Expenditure Breakdown (2013Q2) Forecast: 0.6 The expenditure breakdown of UK GDP is expected to show the economy expanded 0.6 q/q and 1.4 y/y in the three months to June, unrevised from the previously released estimate. Exports, investment and household spending all likely contributed to growth during the quarter, while imports were likely the key drag. The economy is forecast to expand through the second half of the year, though the risks remain weighted to the downside. GDP is forecast to expand by 1.1 for 2013. (16h00) U. S.A. New Home Sales (July) Forecast: 490,000 New home sales may dip a bit in July after jumping 8 in June. That could still leave sales up a whopping 32 year-over-year for the three months ending July, which would be the sharpest quarterly gain in over 20 years. Rapidly accelerating new home sales growth brings strong knock-on effects to overall growth by continuing to boost construction trends. MONDAY, AUGUST 21 Trade balance data for Japan are released alongside the leading indicator from the Cabinet Office on Monday. The UK sees an update on house prices from Rightmove, as well as the latest findings from the Markit Household Finance Index. TUESDAY, AUGUST 20 The Japanese all industry activity index for June is released by METI. Producer prices numbers are issued in Germany alongside business sentiment indicators from IFO. An update on national activity is provided by the Chicago Fed in the US WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 21 Public sector net borrowing numbers and the latest results from the CBI industrial trends survey are released in the UK. The US Fed publishes the minutes from its previous monetary policy meeting. Existing home sales and mortgage data are also released in the US. THURSDAY, AUGUST 22 Markit provides an update on business conditions in the US, China and the eurozone with the publication of its August flash PMIs. The Reuters tankan index is meanwhile released in Japan. Initial jobless claims data are published in the US. House prices figures from FHFA and the leading indicator from the Conference Board follow. FRIDAY, AUGUST 23 The European Commission publishes August flash consumer confidence readings for the euro area. The second estimates of GDP are released in Germany and the UK. Mortgage data provided by BBA are also published in the UK. Consumer prices numbers are released in Canada alongside new home sales figures in the US Mercati: i dati macro italiani ed esteri della prossima settimana (MF Dow Jones) Questi i dati macroeconomci attesi per la prossima settimana sulla base delle indicazioni dellUfficio Studi e Analisi Finanziaria di Banca Imi: LUNEDI8217 12 agosto MARTEDI8217 13 agosto E8217 attesa la pubblicazione dei verbali della riunione della Bank of Japan del 10-11 luglio (18h45) e8217 atteso l8217intervento del presidente della Fed di Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart (19h00) il Cancelliere Angela Merkel prende parte al dibattito politico in tv in vista delle elezioni di settembre MERCOLEDI8217 14 agosto E8217 attesa la pubblicazione dei verbali della riunione della Bank of England del 1 agosto (21h15) e8217 atteso il discorso di James Bullard, presidente della Fed di St. Louis GIOVEDI8217 15 agosto il mercato azionario italiano e8217 chiuso per festivita8217 (14h15) e8217 atteso il discorso di James Bullard , presidente della Fed di St. Louis VENERDI8217 16 agosto E8217 atteso il discorso del Cancelliere tedesco, Angela Merkel in occasione dell8217inaugurazione di un nuovo laboratorio di ricerca (12h00) la Bce annuncia i rimborsi dei fondi della prima e della seconda Ltro a 3 anni MONDAY, AUGUST 12 (01h50) Japan: GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 0.9 The Japanese economy continued to grow strongly in the second quarter and will come close to matching the first quarters 1 q/q expansion. Exports and industrial production are rising, wholesale and retail trade is firm, and a solid upturn in residential construction is under way and has at least another 12 months to run. The big unknownand the key to Abenomics, as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe8217s economic plan is knownis a lift in nonresidential investment. Rising sentiment and machinery orders suggest that business investment was slightly positive in the June quarter. (10h00) Germany: House Price Index (July) Forecast: 6.7 y/y New-home prices jumped 6.6 y/y and 0.5 m/m in June. Prices of apartments and existing homes also gained in year-to-year and month-to-month terms. Slowing inflation, low interest rates, low unemployment, and strong wage growth keep demand for houses stronger than in other euro zone countries despite the sovereign debt crisis. Germanys Markit Construction PMI declined to 51.5 in July from 54.5 in June, indicating expansion at a slower pace. TUESDAY, AUGUST 13 (01h50) Japan: Machinery Orders (June) Forecast: -4 Core machinery orders jumped in May, so we expect a modest correction in the June numbers. Despite this, the trend for machinery orders remains firm and we should see capital expenditure lift in the second half of the year. This would be a clear sign that Abenomics is working as planned. (08h00) Germany: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 1.8 y/y German consumer price growth accelerated again in June. The national measure of CPI rose 1.8 y/y, after a 1.6 y/y increase in May. The EU-harmonized measure of consumer prices climbed 1.9 y/y in June, following a 1.6 rise previously. The European Central Bank kept its main rate at 0.5 in July. The euro zones consumer price growth accelerated to 1.6 y/y in June and remained below the ECBs target, while the jobless rate climbed to 12.1 in May. More interest rate cuts are possible if conditions deteriorate further however, recent signs of stabilization lowered the odds for further policy easing. (09h00) Spain: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 2.1 y/y The annual growth of Spains national consumer prices is expected to have been steady in July compared with the previous month. The price of Brent crude oil, the European benchmark, has been on an upward trend since May, likely pushing up the cost of petrol and energy. However, the euro has been gradually appreciating on a trade-weighted basis, putting downward pressure on the cost of imports somewhat. Also, the recession and high unemployment would have kept a lid on domestic demand-driven pressures. (10h30) United Kingdom: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 2.5 y/y The annual inflation rate for the UK nudged up to 2.9 in June from 2.7 a month earlier. In month-ago terms, the CPI fell 0.2. Although discounting by retailers will have helped cool price pressures in July, the inflation rate will remain elevated in 2013. Travel, rent and education costs, as well as utility bills and food prices, will keep the inflation rate above the Bank of Englands 2 target this year. (10h30) United Kingdom: Producer Price Index (July) Forecast: 2.1 y/y The output producer price measure for the U. K. rose 0.1 m/m and 2 y/y in June while the input price measure increased 0.2 m/m and 4.2 y/y. Higher Brent oil prices will have put upward pressure on the PPI in July. Global commodity prices, including food prices, are the key risks for higher prices this year. However, weak demand and spare capacity will help keep UK producer price growth relatively contained in 2013. (11h00) Germany, Euro Zone: ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment (August) Forecast: 43.2 Investor confidence stagnated in Germany in July, as the ZEW indicator of economic sentiment fell to 36.3 from 38.5 previously. The values of forward-looking indicators suggest solid improvement. The German PMI rose to 50.7 from 48.6 previously. The Manufacturing Markit PMI for the euro zone climbed above the expansion/contraction threshold of 50, to a two-year high of 50.3 in July, from 48.8 in June. German manufacturing orders jumped unexpectedly by 3.8 m/m in June. By type, the largest improvement was recorded for capital goods, which hints at increasing investment expenditures in the third quarter. The German Ifo business climate index climbed for the third consecutive month in July to 106.2, a four-month high, from 105.9 in the previous month. (11h00) Euro Zone: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: 0.5 m/m Euro zone industry is showing signs of stabilization. Manufacturing purchasing managers8217 indexes for the euro zone and Italy reached two-year highs in July. Although Frances PMI posted its strongest readings in 17 months, it remained below 50, indicating contraction. More important, the manufacturing PMI for Germany jumped to an 18-month high of 50.7 from 48.6 in June. Still, weak demand within euroland, tight credit, and elevated unemployment will be the key drags. (14h30) U. S.A. Import Price Index (July) Forecast: 0.8 A large jump in oil prices may lead the July Import Price Index to its first gain in five months. The price per barrel of oil rose 12 last month, which will feed into higher consumer costs at the pump. Yet imported cost pressures have not spread to other commodities. A reading on raw materials costs that excludes oil, Moodys Spot Commodity Price Index, fell 1 in July for its fifth decline of the past six months. (14h30) U. S.A. Retail Sales (July) Forecast: 0.4 overall, 0.4 ex auto Strong sustained gains for auto sales have overall retail sales pointing higher in July. Vehicle sales for the three months ending July were up 10 year-over year, as consumers are increasingly able to execute bigticket purchases. The yearly pace of real consumer spending improved to a three-month high of 2.0 in June, demonstrating a resilience that can stimulate the pace of store sales. (16h00) U. S.A. Business Inventories (June) Forecast: 0.3 The initial estimate for second quarter GDP exceeded expectations thanks to stronger than expected business inventory growth. Yet with past softness for industrial output, revised or future inventory data may inflict a drag on growth. Muted business sales growth of 3 yearly to May will make firms cautious with regards to investing and building inventory. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 14 (00h45) New Zealand: Retail Trade (2013Q2) Forecast: 0.6 New Zealands real retail sales likely rose 0.6 in the second quarter, following the first quarter8217s 0.5 rise. The steadily improving labor market and surging consumer confidence likely supported retail spending. We expect further improvement in retail sales, driven by the labor market recovery, accommodative policy rates, and positive wealth effects from steady house price appreciation. (01h00) South Korea: Employment (July) Forecast: 3.2 unemployed Koreas unemployment rate likely held steady at 3.2 for a third straight month in July. The economy added more than 45,000 jobs per month in the first half of 2013, and Julys tally likely matched that pace. The governments fiscal stimulus and measures to support the housing market are providing a lift to hiring in retail, wholesale and construction. Government measures are also encouraging more workers into the labor force, a positive sign for the outlook. (07h30) France: GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 0 q/q GDP in France is expected to have remained flat in the second quarter, yet signs of improvement are already evident and the economy is slowly emerging from recession. Despite marginally improved private consumption, fixed investment and net exports still drag on GDP. Government austerity measures are a factor, especially through high indirect taxation. France will likely emerge completely from the recession in the second half of this year, but growth will remain subdued. (08h00) Germany: Preliminary GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 0.1 q/q German output expanded 0.1 q/q in the first quarter after a revised 0.7 contraction in the previous stanza. High-frequency indicators suggest that the German economy grew modestly in the second quarter, mostly because of consumption. The Markit Manufacturing PMI gauge signals stronger growth in the third quarter. Moodys Analytics expects the economy to expand 0.5 in 2013 after growth of 0.9 previously. (08h45) France: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 0.9 m/m Frances annual EU-harmonized consumer price growth is expected to have remained weak in July. The prices of fuels and other energy were stable while high-value-added imports were flattening, and there were no significant pressures relative to the euro. Similarly, there were no significant pressures on the demand side, with high unemployment and nearly zero economic growth. This is likely to continue in the months ahead, before any tangible recovery. (08h45) France: Nonfarm Payrolls (2013Q2) Forecast: -0.2 q/q Nonfarm payrolls are expected to have fallen in the second quarter because of weak private and public sector hiring. The weak economy likely prompted companies to freeze hiring or lay off staff, or both. Public sector hiring has weakened after the previous government moved to replace only half of all retiring public employees. The number of people in France actively seeking work has risen every month since September 2011 and hit a record high in June. (09h00) Spain: Industrial Orders (June) Forecast: -4 y/y New industrial orders in Spain likely fell in year-ago terms in June, following a 1.3 drop in the previous month. Industrial production is under pressure because of weak domestic and foreign demand. Elevated unemployment and higher taxes are weighing on domestic demand. The jobless rate fell slightly in the second quarter but remained high at more than 26. However, demand for exports is subdued because of weak economic activity in Spains key euro zone trading partners. (10h30) United Kingdom: Bank of England Minutes (August) The minutes of the Bank of England8217s August monetary policy meeting are expected to show that the decisions to hold interest rates steady at 0.5 and asset purchases at 375 billion were unanimous. (10h30) United Kingdom: Employment Situation (July) Forecast: 7.8 The headline ILO-harmonized unemployment rate for the UK held at 7.8 in the three months to May. The national claimant count jobless rate, which is a month ahead of the ILO data, nudged down to 4.4 in June from 4.5 previously. Divergence in the two measures is possible in coming monthswith the ILO ticking up and the claimant count falling furtherbecause of changes in the welfare benefit system. Job security concerns will be a key dampener on UK households through the rest of 2013. (11h00) Euro Zone: Provisional GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 0 q/q The euro zone economy is likely to have neither expanded nor contracted in the three months to June, after GDP fell 0.2 q/q in the previous quarter. The composite (manufacturing and services) purchasing managers index for the region rose in June to just below 50, the threshold between expansion and contraction. In July, the composite PMI climbed above 50, suggesting that the economy will emerge from recession in the third quarter. (14h30) U. S.A. Producer Price Index (July) Forecast: 0.4 overall, 0.2 core Spiking oil costs are projected to push the Producer Price Index up significantly for the third consecutive month in July. This recent uptrend will raise eyebrows, as the PPI climbed 2.5 yearly to June, a 15-month high. Yet the core PPI is not seeing much of a feed-through to raise wide scale price concerns, with its annual pace holding steady at 1.7 for four straight months. THURSDAY, AUGUST 15 (10h30) United Kingdom: Retail Sales (July) Forecast: 2.3 y/y UK retail sales rose in June, bolstered by retailer discounting during the traditional summer sales. Sales increased 0.2 m/m and 2.2 y/y. Sales are expected to have increased in July on ongoing discounting by retailers and because of the warm weather. But thereafter, sustained gains for UK retailers particularly those on the high streetare unlikely given the pressures facing households. (14h30) U. S.A. Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 0.2 overall, 0.2 core The Consumer Price Index may only expand slightly in July, keeping the Federal Reserve on guard for deflation. In the last FOMC statement, the tone on price trends shifted, with an acknowledgement that price growth consistently short of 2 can hold back the economy. At 1.6 yearly to June, Core CPIs trend would both allow for and encourage a long stay for highly accommodative monetary policy. (15h15) U. S.A. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (July) Forecast: 0.3 industrial production, 77.9 capacity utilization Industrial production is expected to move higher in July amid signs of sturdier global growth. The eurozones recession may be coming to a close with the July Markit Composite PMI of business activity posting a positive result for the first time since early 2012. A related lift from export demand brought last months ISM Manufacturing Index new orders value to a multi-year high of 58.3, which can support a long-term expansion for US industrial output. (16h00) U. S.A. NAHB Housing Market Index (August) Forecast: 57 Tight inventories of new homes can allow the August reading on homebuilder sentiment to equal the previous months seven-year high. At 161,000, the number of new homes available for sale is near a twoyear high, yet it still lags the average of the past 20 years by 51. That limited supply is being fought over by increasing numbers of potential buyers, as a separate NAHB index of buyer interest rose 13 to a multiyear high in July. FRIDAY, AUGUST 16 (02h30) Singapore: Foreign Trade (July) Forecast: -4.5 Electronics exports remain weak, falling by double digits in year-on-year terms in June. Exports of pharmaceuticals also fell in June as factories shut down for cleaning. Some improvement is expected in July, although nonoil domestic exports are still falling year on year. A trough in tech exports seems to be at hand, while pharmaceuticals may be exiting their cyclical slump. (09h30) Hong Kong: GDP (2013Q2) Forecast: 0.5 Hong Kongs GDP growth probably picked up mildly in the second quarter as domestic drivers partly offset weakness in foreign trade. The economy likely grew a seasonally adjusted 0.5 in the second quarter, up from the first quarters 0.2 gain but still below trend. Rising retail spending and tourism supported local business activity. On the downside, equity markets tumbled and port activity weakened on the back of Chinas slowdown. (10h00) Euro Zone: Balance of Payments (June) Forecast: 18 billion The euro zones current account balance is expected to have improved, not seasonally adjusted, in June from the previous month. Similarly, the balance is likely to have gotten better compared with June 2012. The foreign trade surplus probably widened as the weak economy, rising unemployment, and tight credit weighed on demand for imports. Similarly, the surplus on the income account likely expanded as subdued economic activity kept a lid on the earnings of local companies, restricting dividend payments to foreign holders of euro zone assets. Likewise, the deficit on current transfers probably narrowed as the recession prompted households to reduce their financial support for family members and friends living outside the euro zone. (11h00) Euro Zone: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 1.6 y/y The euro zones consumer price growth was flat at 1.6 y/y in July, according to Eurostats preliminary estimates. A weak economy, elevated unemployment, and subdued wage growth will help contain inflation pressures, while rising oil prices remain a key risk. Earlier this month, the European Central Bank held the main policy rate at 0.5, and ECB President Mario Draghi repeated that the bank expects the key rates to remain at their current or lower levels for an extended period. Draghi further emphasized that although sentiment indicators hint at stabilization, risks to euro area growth remain and inflation continues to be subdued. (11h00) Euro Zone: External Trade (June) Forecast: 13.5 billion The euro zones trade surplus is expected to have narrowed, not seasonally adjusted, in June from the previous month. However, the surplus likely widened compared with June 2012 as the boost from weaker imports outweighed the drag from deteriorating exports. The weak economy, rising unemployment, and tight credit probably weighed on demand for imports. However, subdued economic activity in most of the euro zones key trading partners is expected to have dampened demand for exports. (11h00) Italy: Balance of Payments (June) Forecast: 1.8 billion Italys cumulative current account balance shifted to surplus in the 12 months ending in May from a deficit a year earlier. The main driver of the improvement was a higher surplus on the goods account thanks to rising exports, mainly to non-European countries. The Italian trade balance is predicted to stay in surplus in coming months, as weak household spending due to rising unemployment and tight credit will weigh on imports. Recovery in global demand should support Italian exports and manufacturing. (14h30) U. S.A. Productivity amp Unit Labor Costs (2013Q2) (Preliminary) Forecast: 0.3 productivity, 1.9 unit labor costs Steady job gains and subpar economic output are projected to limit productivity growth in the second quarter. Yet labor costs have not been a burden on businesses during the current recovery. Unit labor costs have only risen 2 since the end of the recession in mid-2009, which has greatly enhanced corporate profit margins and held down inflation. (14h30) U. S.A. Housing Starts amp Building Permits (July) Forecast: 900,000 starts, 945,000 permits July housing starts look to bounce back from a sharp June decline, as rapid home price gains still support new construction. Home prices in the 20-city Case-Shiller index increased 12.2 annually to May, the quickest ascent since 2006. Those price movements can perpetuate the strong long-term increase for housing starts, which rose 18 year-over-year last quarter. (15h55) U. S.A. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (August) (Preliminary) Forecast: 85.5 The first reading for consumer sentiment in the August Michigan survey can produce a new six-year high, with persistent job and income gains helping the cause. Wage and salary income rose 3.5 yearly to June, a six-month high that aids both confidence and retail sales growth. Julys confidence reading was right at the historical average, indicative of an economy that moving away from the status of perpetually depressed. MONDAY, AUGUST 12 Japan publishes the preliminary reading of GDP for the second quarter, ahead of industrial production and capacity utilisation numbers for June. International trade data is released in France. The federal budget is meanwhile the only notable economic release for the US. TUESDAY, AUGUST 13 Japanese machinery order numbers and the latest minutes from the Bank of Japan are released on Tuesday Industrial production figures are issued for the eurozone, followed by an update on economic sentiment (ZEW) for Germany. Consumer prices data are meanwhile published in Germany, Spain and the UK. The UK also sees an update on producer and retail prices, as well as the latest results from the RICS housing survey. Retail sales, import prices and business inventories data, as well as NFIB confidence indicators for small businesses are all released in the US. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 14 The first estimates of GDP for the second quarter are published for France, Germany and the euro area as a whole on Wednesday. Consumer prices data are also released in France. An update on unemployment figures is seen in the UK, as well as average earning data and the minutes from the Bank of Englands previous policy meeting. Producer prices and mortgage data (MBA) are issued in the US. THURSDAY, AUGUST 15 Retail sales figures for July are released in the UK. Consumer prices, initial claims, industrial production and capacity utilisation data are published in the US. The latest results from both the Empire State and NAHB builders surveys follow. FRIDAY, AUGUST 16 International trade and inflation data are issued for the euro area as a whole on Friday. Italy also sees a separate update on current account figures. Labour costs and productivity data are published in the US, as well as building permits and housing starts figures. The preliminary estimate of US consumer confidence from the University of Michigan follows. Mercati: i dati macro italiani ed esteri della prossima settimana (MF Dow Jones) Questi i dati macroeconomci attesi per la prossima settimana sulla base delle indicazioni dellUfficio Studi e Analisi Finanziaria di Banca Imi: LUNEDI8217 5 agosto (17h45) e8217 atteso l8217intervento di Richard Fisher, presidente della Fed di Dallas MARTEDI8217 6 agosto (06h30) la Reserve Bank of Australia annuncia la decisione sui tassi di interesse (19h00) e8217 atteso l8217intervento del presidente della Fed di Chicago, Charles Evans MERCOLEDI8217 7 agosto (11h30) e8217 attesta la pubblicazione dell8217Inflation Report della BoE. A seguire e8217 previsto l8217intervento del Governatore, Mark Carney (18h30) e8217 atteso l8217intrevento del presidente della Fed di Philadelphia, Charles Plosser (19h40) e8217 atteso il discorso diel presidente della Fed di Cleveland, Sandra Pianalto GIOVEDI8217 8 agosto i mercati azionari sono chiusi a Singapore per festivita8217 E8217 attesa la decisione di politica monetaria della Bank of Japan (10h00) e8217 prevista la pubblicazione del bollettino mensile della Bce VENERDI8217 9 agosto i mercati azionari sono chiusi a Singapore per festivita8217 (12h00) la Bce annuncia i rimborsi dei fondi della prima e della seconda Ltro a 3 anni MONDAY, AUGUST 05 (02h30) Taiwan: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 0.5 A high base effect likely led consumer prices to decelerate in July, after they rose 0.6 in June. Inflation is muted in Taiwan because of a large output gap, ensuring demand-side pressures stay subdued. Favorable weather has ensured ample supplies of fruit and vegetables. Low inflation has meant the central bank has been able to keep monetary settings firmly in accommodative territory for a sustained period. (03h30) Australia: Retail Sales (June) Forecast: 0.4 Australian retail spending likely enjoyed a modest uptick in June, after May8217s 0.1 m/m gain. Wealth effects from below-average mortgage repayments, improving residential property prices, and the better local stock market have encouraged consumers to open their wallets a little more freely. The bias towards further Reserve Bank of Australia rate cuts will be an ongoing stimulus to the interest-sensitive household sector. (06h00) Malaysia: Foreign Trade (June) Forecast: MYR3 billion Malaysias monthly trade surplus likely widened to MYR3 billion from Mays MYR2.5 billion, though narrowing sharply relative to 2012s MYR9.2 billion. Lower commodity prices, a relatively strong currency, and weak global demand for traditional electronics products such as personal computers and televisions hurt Malaysias exports in the first half of the year. Imports are growing strongly on the back of robust local consumer and investment demand. (10h30) United Kingdom: Halifax Housing Price Index (July) Forecast: 4.3 The UK residential property market continues to recover. Prices rose 0.6 m/m and 3.7 y/y in June, according to the Halifax house price index. This follows a 0.5 m/m and 2.6 y/y increase in May and marks the fifth consecutive monthly rise. The government-backed help-to-buy scheme, combined with looser credit conditions, will bolster the property market in 2013. (11h00) Euro Zone: Retail Trade (June) Forecast: 0.5 Euro zone retail sales rose by 1 in May from the previous month, as sales of both food and non food products increased. However, monthly changes are volatile, and the underlying trends in retail sales remain weak. Spending will be soft in the coming months as euroland households face a number of obstacles that will keep discretionary spending muted for some months. Rising unemployment, higher taxes, weakening wage growth, and tightened credit are eating into household purchasing power. (16h00) U. S.A. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (July) Forecast: 53.0 Sturdy hiring trends point to an increase for the July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index. The private service sector added 202,000 jobs per month in the second quarter, the best result of the past five quarters. Yet improvement in demand for services will be restrained in the near-term, as the Non-Manufacturing survey reading on new orders fell to a multi-year low of 50.8 in June. TUESDAY, AUGUST 06 (03h30) Australia: Foreign Trade (June) Forecast: A500 million Australia8217s monthly trade balance likely remained in surplus by the skin of its teeth in June, after recording a surplus of A700 million in May. Export prices fell further in June, dampening exporter receipts. Capital imports have come off their peak as the mining boom moves to its next phase, which includes lower demand for capital imports. The lower exchange rate will put pressure on the trade balance in coming months as imports get relatively more expensive. (06h30) Australia: Monetary Policy (August) Forecast: 2.5 The Reserve Bank of Australia will likely cut rates by 25 basis points in August, bringing the cash rate to a record low 2.5. Second quarter inflation data confirmed that price pressures are within comfort levels, enabling the RBA to cut rates further to shore up the interest-sensitive sectors of the economy. Although a large pipeline of monetary stimulus is working through the economy, a little more juice is needed to insulate against mining investment peaking later in 2013. Financial markets are on board, pricing in a 93 chance of an August rate cut. (08h45) France: Fiscal balance (June) Forecast: -50 billion Frances fiscal deficit is expected to have narrowed, not seasonally adjusted, in June. The government is struggling to meet its budget deficit reduction targets because its fiscal tightening has focused on raising the tax burden, rather than much-needed sharp spending cuts. Government spending is equal to about 57 of GDP, the highest in the euro zone. The government recently acknowledged it will not meet its deficit target of 3 of GDP this year. The European Commission has granted France a two-year extension on the condition it introduces additional structural reforms. Spending by central and local governments, including on social welfare, is set to be cut by 14 billion in 2014. (10h00) Italy: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: 0.5 Italian manufacturing is showing signs of stabilization. Confidence in manufacturing rose to 91.7 in July from 90.5 in the previous month amid efforts by centre-left Prime Minister Enrico Lettas cabinet to increase employment and spur economic growth. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing jumped to a two-year high of 49.1 in June from 47.3 in May. Although elevated unemployment and tight credit will remain a key hindrance in coming months, new fiscal stimulus and rising real wages could support household consumption and activity in the private sector. (10h30) United Kingdom: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: 0.4 UK industrial production disappointed in May, coming in unchanged in month-ago terms and dropping a notable 2.3 y/y. Meanwhile, manufacturing dropped 0.8 m/m and 2.9 y/y. Output is forecast to expand in the near term after the June purchasing managers8217 index for manufacturing rose to 52.5its strongest reading since April 2011from 51.3 in May on the back of strengthening domestic and foreign orders and subdued input costs. However, sustained output gains are unlikely given that domestic demand remains bound by fiscal austerity and key euroland trade partners still face severe economic difficulties. (11h00) Italy: GDP (2013Q2) (Preliminary) Forecast: -0.4 Italys recession likely eased in the three months to June from the first quarter. The latest surveys suggest that manufacturing, which accounts for almost a fifth of Italian GDP, is showing signs of atabilization, while household spending, restrained by rising unemployment and falling house prices, is expected to remain weak. But some upside may be seen in coming months. Italys retail sales increased for the first time in a year in May and consumer confidence hit a two-year high in July, after the government postponed a scheduled value-added tax increase until October and froze the payment of a property levy due in June. Yet tight credit and weak lending demand will drag on Italys recovery. (12h00) Germany: Manufacturing Turnover and Orders Received (June) Forecast: -0.5 German manufacturing orders dropped unexpectedly by 1.3 m/m and 2 y/y in May. Germanys Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in July from 48.6 in the previous month, signaling that German industry is emerging from recession. Moreover, the German Ifo Business Climate Index climbed for the third consecutive month in July to 106.2, a four-month high, from 105.9 in the previous month. Yet manufacturing orders will remain under pressure in the coming months because the euro zone is in recession, the global outlook remains weak, and the euro remains relatively strong despite the policy rate cut by the European Central Bank from 0.75 to 0.5 in May. (14h30) U. S.A. Trade Balance (June) Forecast: -43.8 billion The June trade deficit is forecast to narrow a bit thanks to dips in the prices of oil and other commodities. Rapid growth for imports last quarter took a substantial bite out of growth, with overall trade subtracting 0.8 from Q2s GDP. But that import bump contains a positive signal for US business investment trends, with significant gains for capital goods imports recorded in five of the past six months. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 07 (00h45) New Zealand: Employment Situation (2013Q2) Forecast: 6 unemployed New Zealands unemployment rate will likely print at 6 in the second quarter, following the 6.2 recorded a quarter earlier. Stronger hiring intentions across most facets of the economy, particularly in construction, suggest the labor market will improve over the year. However, weakness in the global economy poses significant downside risks to the 2013 outlook. At this stage, we expect the unemployment rate will settle at around 6 by the end of 2013. (03h30) Australia: Housing Finance (June) Forecast: 1.3 Residential property has been the most responsive sector to the RBA rate cuts. Property prices have increased, while auction clearance rates are well up on a year-ago basis, demonstrating keen buyer interest. Owner-occupied housing finance has been a solid performer, and we expect this will continue in June, following May8217s 1.8 m/m gain. Below-average mortgage rates have encouraged potential homebuyers back into the market (06h00) Malaysia: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: 3.7 Malaysian industrial production likely expanded 3.7 y/y in June, slightly faster than Mays 3.4 gain. The governments infrastructure spending is supporting gains in the production of metals, transport equipment and petrochemicals. Yet output is expected to continue growing below trend, reflecting weakness in traditional electronics production such as personal computers, and sluggish global demand. (08h45) France: Trade Balance (June) Forecast: -5 billion Frances foreign trade deficit likely narrowed, seasonally adjusted, in June. The recession, rising unemployment and tight credit likely reduced the demand for imports, supporting the trade balance. However, the euro zone is also in recession, which would have dampened demand for exports because France8217s key trading partners are in the region. This suggests that exports also probably waned, dragging on the trade balance somewhat. (12h00) Germany: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: 0.5 German industrial production likely rose in June following a decline in the previous month. It is consistent with the purchasing managers index for manufacturing, which rose in July at its fastest pace in five months. Yet industrial output is expected to have remained under pressure because the euro zone is in recession, the global outlook remains weak, and the euro is relatively strong on a trade-weighted basis. THURSDAY, AUGUST 08 (03h00) South Korea: Monetary Policy (August) Forecast: 2.5 The Bank of Korea is expected to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 2.5 and maintain an easing bias. The central bank is sitting on the sidelines as it assesses the impact of Mays rate cut and the governments fiscal stimulus. Benign inflation and below-trend growth will allow the BoK to keep rates low for the foreseeable future. (03h30) Australia: Employment Situation (July) Forecast: 5.8 unemployed Australia8217s unemployment rate likely ticked up to 5.8 in July from 5.7 in June. We expect a modest 10,000 jobs were created over the month, not enough to keep the unemployment rate steady. Parts of the mining industry are shedding jobs some are moving to the less labour-intensive phase of investment, while others are responding to weaker global demand. There have been tentative and modest improvements in non-mining employment with accommodative monetary settings. (05h00) Japan: Monetary Policy (August) Forecast: 175 trillion All of the major monetary policy announcements have already been made and it is now a matter of the Bank of Japan implementing its plan. The aim is to increase the monetary base to 200 trillion by the end of the year and then 270 trillion by the end of 2014. The BoJ is no longer targeting the overnight call rate. (06h00) China: Foreign Trade (July) Forecast: US20 billion China8217s trade performance was weak in June and this likely continued into July. Exporters are facing weak global demand, which was masked earlier this year by speculative capital inflows. Lower commodity prices are reducing import receipts. The government has pledged some support for smaller manufacturers, but this has not amounted to much. (08h00) Germany: Foreign Trade (June) Forecast: 15 billion Germany8217s trade surplus is expected to have widened in June from 14.1 billion in the previous month. On the one hand, slowing exports will drag on the balance in coming months, as some of Germany8217s key trading partners are already in recession. In addition, a stronger euro will further hurt German exports. On the other hand, net exports will be fairly stable thanks to a broad distribution of global trading partners. Moodys Analytics forecasts that the U. S. will grow 1.9 and China 7.6 in 2013. (09h30) Spain: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: -1.2 Industrial production in Spain has failed to grow in year-ago terms for more than two years, and underlying trends remain weak for the coming months. The situation seems to be stabilizing, however. The Markit Spain manufacturing PMI rose strongly in June, indicating no change in business conditions for the first time, after 25 straight months of contractions in economic activity. However, the strong improvement was mainly driven by external demand, and domestic activity remains subdued. Industry will be under pressure in 2013, mainly because of additional austerity measures. (10h00) Taiwan: Foreign Trade (July) Forecast: US1.6 billion We expect a pullback in Taiwan8217s July export growth, after June8217s unexpected 8.7 y/y surge. Less volatile production and export orders data indicate that global demand is still soft and weighing on Taiwan8217s economy. A low base effect will nonetheless artificially inflate year-on-year export growth rates. We expect export growth to come in at 3.3 y/y. Without the low base, imports will sharply decelerate to 1 in July from June8217s 6.8. (12h25) OECD: Composite Leading Indicators (June) Forecast: 100.7 The OECD composite leading indicator rose to 100.6 in May from 100.5 a month earlier. The measure has risen steadily since autumn and is expected to increase through the near term. However, uncertainty is clouding the global outlook for 2013. FRIDAY, AUGUST 09 (01h50) Japan: Industry Activity Indexes (June) Forecast: 0.3 Tertiary activity rebounded in May thanks to rising wholesale and retail trade and continued growth in finance and insurance. The retail numbers may slip in the coming months but other service sectors should improve as domestic demand lifts. (03h30) China: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 2.9 Consumer price inflation in China likely reaccelerated in July, but the peak is near. Much of the gains reflect a weak year-ago comparison. Producer prices remain in deflation and price pressures outside of housing and food are low, suggesting low core inflation. The slowing economy has created an output gap, and this will push inflation lower in the second half of 2013. (03h30) China: Producer Price Index (July) Forecast: -2.5 Producer prices are in deflation, although there were signs of recovery in June. Prices of raw materials/commodities remain below their peaks, and this is keeping firms8217 input costs in check. Weak demand is also causing firms to cut margins and lower their own prices, which is amplifying the deflationary impact. That said, hard commodity prices appear to be reaching their trough, which will push producer prices higher. (07h00) Japan: Consumer Confidence (July) Forecast: 45 Confidence dipped unexpectedly in June and the headline reading may have peaked, though it still sits well below the neutral level of 50. The June figure was disappointing as it followed a strong run in the previous six months. We had expected sentiment to continue rising, as employment prospects are improving and the broader economy continues to lift. (07h30) China: Fixed Asset Investment (July) Forecast: 20 Fixed investment growth has steadily trended lower since the beginning of the year. China8217s investment cycle remains on a downtrend because of weak demand, tighter restrictions in the housing market, and a lack of stimulus. Reduced credit growth, due to problems in interbank markets, is also crimping investment. (07h30) China: Industrial Production (July) Forecast: 8.8 Industrial production has been hampered by a lack of stimulus and weak export demand. Slower residential investment is slowing demand for steel, cement, glass, and other industrial goods. Banking sector problems in June may also have crimped industrial activity in July. Overall, July activity is likely to point to another deceleration in growth. (07h30) China: Retail Sales (July) Forecast: 13.6 Retail spending in China is a rare bright spot in the economy, with growth accelerating mildly through the year. A crackdown on official spending crimped retail sales at the beginning of the year, but this effect appears to be fading. The slowing housing market is stalling some related purchases, but continued income growth will boost consumption over investment in the longer term. (08h45) France: Industrial Production (June) Forecast: 0.3 Frances industrial production index is expected to have risen slightly, seasonally adjusted, in June. However, the demand for local products likely remained under pressure from the recession, tight credit, and slack demand from key euro zone trading partners. The French manufacturing purchasing managers8217 index, a forward indicator of industrial production, climbed in June to its highest level since February 2012 but was in the territory associated with contraction for the 15th consecutive month. (10h00) Italy: Foreign Trade (June) Forecast: 2.8 billion Italy8217s foreign trade balance likely remained in surplus in June. In May, Italy reported a not seasonally adjusted surplus of 3.9 billion. The Italian economy will have to depend on external demand to return to growth. Business and consumer sentiment in the euro zone has lifted somewhat from low levels, and euro area export growth should benefit from a recovery in global demand. The flash euro zone purchasing managers index for manufacturing and services increased to 50.4 in July from 48.7 a month earlier. The value over the expansion/contraction threshold of 50 suggests that output will grow in the third quarter. (10h30) United Kingdom: Foreign Trade (June) Forecast: -8.8 billion The UK trade deficit widened marginally to 8.5 billion in May from a revised 8.4 billion in the previous month. Higher oil prices will have added to the energy bill in June and the goods balance will maintain a relatively large deficit through much of 2013 amid weak demand from key European trade partners. The services balance narrowed in May but will remain in surplus in 2013. (11h00) Italy: Consumer Price Index (July) Forecast: 1.2 Italys consumer price growth slowed in July. Although national price growth eased to 1.1 y/y from 1.2 in June, EU-harmonized consumer prices rose 1.2, down from 1.4 previously, according to the preliminary forecasts. Signs of stabilization in Italys manufacturing and rising energy prices will put upward pressure on inflation. Although elevated unemployment and tight credit will remain a key hindrance, new fiscal stimulus could support household consumption and activity in the private sector, increasing price pressures a bit in coming months. MONDAY, AUGUST 05 Services and whole economy PMI data are published worldwide by Markit. The euro area sees retail sales data and the latest sentix investor confidence indicator. In the US, employment trends are published by the Conference Board, alongside non-manufacturing PMI data from the ISM. TUESDAY, AUGUST 06 The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), produced by Markit, is released on Tuesday. Japans Cabinet Office issues the preliminary estimate of the leading indicator for June. The latest monetary policy decision is meanwhile announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The UK sees an update on retail sales numbers from the BRC and Italy publishes the first reading of GDP for the second quarter. WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 07 Markit releases the latest Global Sector PMIs for 34 different industries and sectors. French international trade data are published ahead of German industrial production numbers. In the UK, the Bank of England releases its quarterly inflation report. Consumer credit and mortgage data (MBA) are issued in the US THURSDAY, AUGUST 08 International trade, bank lending and money supply figures are issued in China. The Bank of Japan announces its latest monetary policy decision. Bank lending, money supply and current account data, as well as the economy watchers survey results are also published in Japan. German trade statistics are released ahead of French business sentiment indicators (Bank of France). Industrial output figures for Spain follow. The UK sees an update on labour market conditions from the KPMG/REC report on jobs. Initial jobless claims numbers are released in the US. FRIDAY, AUGUST 09 Consumer and producer prices numbers are released in China, alongside industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment figures. The Cabinet Office publishes consumer confidence indicators for Japan. Industrial production numbers are released in France, as well as the latest budget balance. International trade data are published in both the UK and Italy. The latter also sees an update on consumer prices. Wholesale inventory figures are released in the US, alongside Canadian employment numbers Purchasing Managers Index (Indice dei Direttori degli Acquisti) LUNEDI, AGOSTO 05 (01h15) Japan: Markit Japan Services/Composite PMI (03h45) China: HSBC China Services/Composit PMI (03h30) Hong Kong: HSBC Hong Kong PMI (07h00) India: HSBC India Services/Composite PMI (07h00) Russia: HSBC Russia Services PMI (07h30) Egypt: HSBC Egypt PMI (07h30) Saudi Arabia: SABB HSBC Saudi Arabia PMI (07h30) United Arab Emirates: HSBC United Arab Emirates PMI (09h15) Spain: Markit Spain Services PMI (09h45) Italy: Markit / ADACI Italy Services PMI (09h50) France: Markit France Services/Composite PMI (09h55) Germany: Markit Germany Services/Composite PMI (10h00) Eurozone: Markit Eurozone Services/Composite PMI (10h30) UK: Markit / CIPS UK Services PMI (11h00) Australia: AiG / Commonwealth Bank Australian PSI (15h00) Brazil: HSBC Brazil Services/Composite PMI (17h00) Global: JPMorgan Global Services/Composite PMI MARTEDI, AGOSTO 06 (01h01) Emerging Markets: HSBC Emerging Markets Index (07h00) Ireland: Investec Services PMI Ireland (08h30) Germany: Markit Germany Construction PMI MERCOLEDI, AGOSTO 07 GIOVEDI, AGOSTO 08 VENERDI, AGOSTO 09 Altri Dati Macro Importanti LUNEDI, AGOSTO 05 MARTEDI, AGOSTO 06 EIA: Short-Term Energy Outlook (Link ) MERCOLEDI, AGOSTO 07 GIOVEDI, AGOSTO 08 OECD: Composite Leading Indicator (OCSE: Superindice) (Link ) VENERDI, AGOSTO 09 OPEC: Monthly Oil Market Report (Link ) Aste Titoli di Stato LUNEDI, AGOSTO 05 (10h00) Olanda: DTC MARTEDI, AGOSTO 06 (11h10) Norvegia: NST 5,0 Maggio-2015 (Nok3,0mld) (11h15) Austria: RAGB 1,75 Ottobre-2023 (0,77mld) (11h30) Regno Unito: GILT 1,25 Luglio-2018 (Gbp4.5mld) (16h30) Regno Unito: annuncio dettagli asta GILT 4,5 2034 di gioved 15 agosto (19h00) U. S.A. 3anni 15-agosto-2016 (32mld) MERCOLEDI, AGOSTO 07 (11h30) Germania: BOBL 0,25 13-Aprile-2018 (4,0mld) (17h30) Italia: annuncio dettagli asta BOT di luned 12 agosto (19h0 0) U. S.A. 10anni 15-agosto-2023 (24mld) GIOVEDI, AGOSTO 08 (11h30) Regno Unito: GILT Linker 0,75 Marzo-2034 (Gbp1,3mld) (19h00) U. S.A. 30anni 15-agosto-2043 (16mld) VENERDI, AGOSTO 09 (02h30) Giappone: JGB 30anni 20-giugno-2043 (500mld) Appuntamenti Italia: Macro LUNEDI, AGOSTO 05 MARTEDI, AGOSTO 06 (10h00) Produzione Industriale (Giugno 2013) (11h00) PIL (2 Trimestre 2013). Stima Preliminare (11h00) Tassi di Interesse (Luglio 2013) (12h00) Costo di Costruzione di un fabbricato residenziale (Giugno 2013) MERCOLEDI, AGOSTO 07 (11h00) Le riserve ufficiali della Banca d8217Italia (Luglio 2013) (11h00) Gli aggregati di bilancio della Banca d8217Italia (Luglio 2013) GIOVEDI, AGOSTO 08 (11h00) Comunicato stampa: Principali voci dei bilanci bancari variazioni percentuali sui dodici mesi (Giugno 2013) (11h00) Supplemento al Bollettino Statistico: Moneta e banche (Giugno 2013) VENERDI, AGOSTO 09 (10h00) Commercio con l8217Estero (Giugno 2013) (11h00) Indice Prezzi al Consumo (Luglio 2013) Appuntamenti Italia: Aste Titoli di Stato LUNEDI, AGOSTO 05 MARTEDI, AGOSTO 06 MERCOLEDI, AGOSTO 07 (17h30) Annuncio dettagli asta BOT di luned 12 agosto GIOVEDI, AGOSTO 08 VENERDI, AGOSTO 09 Appuntamenti Italia: Trimestrali LUNEDI, AGOSTO 05 Impregilo (IPG. MI) Tamburi (TIP. MI) Valsoia (VLS. MI) MARTEDI, AGOSTO 06 Campari (CPRI. MI) Credito Valtellinese (CVAL. MI) Engineeri ng (ENG. MI) Erg (ERG. MI) Italmobiliare (ITM. MI) Moleskine (MSK. MI) Poltrona Frau (PFG. MI) Seat Pagine Gialle (PG. MI) Tas (TAS. MI) TerniEnergia (TER. MI) UniCredit (UCG. MI) MERCOLEDI, AGOSTO 07 Aedes (AE. MI) Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS. MI) Cairo Communication (CAI. MI) Cattolica Assicurazioni (CASS. MI) Emak (EM. MI) Falck Renewables (FKR. MI) Fondiaria-Sai (FSA. MI) Igd (IGD. MI) Milano Assicurazioni (MI. MI) Tod8217s (TOD. MI) TXT e-solutions (TXT. MI) GIOVEDI, AGOSTO 08 Ambienthesis (ATH. MI) Banco di Desio e della Brianza (BDB. MI) Biesse (BSS. MI) Borgosesia (BO. MI) Mediacontech (MCH. MI) PanariaGroup (PAGR. MI) Premafin Finanziaria (PF. MI) Saras (SRS. MI) Screen Service (SSB. MI) (risultati 3 trimestre) Servizi Italia (SRI. MI) Unipol (UNI. MI) VENERDI, AGOSTO 09 Gruppo MutuiOnline (MOL. MI) Banca Popolare dell8217Etruria e del Lazio (PEL. MI) Ima (IMA. MI) Retelit (LIT. MI)